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The Precipice

The Precipice by Toby Ord is a great birdseye view of the biggest challenges that we humans face in the future. Challenges that have the possibility of extinguishing our potential, threats that may make us go extinct. As could be predicted, these threats are currently mostly man-made.

I found this review by Scott Alexander very good. Do read it if you want to get a good overview of the whole book.

Also see this review by Theron Pummer on Notre Dame Philosophical Reviews.

The biggest things that stood out to me were:

  • Risk from AI is one of the largest (1 in 10 change in next 100 years)
    • I can agree on that point, but also think that there are some very good arguments that we will create benevolent AI or at least AI that has ‘good’ goals and that we can manage that
    • See Human Compatible for more about AI
  • Engineered pandemics seem very relevant at this moment (1 in 30)
    • Killing everyone would seem difficult, but it could break down society by killing 99% (or even 70% I would guess)
    • The knowledge seems difficult to get, but maybe would only be used one time
    • Can we even prevent/cure something like this (here my knowledge is lacking most)
  • Unforeseen anthropogenic (man-made) risks (1 in 30)
    • At every step Toby Ord understands the ‘unknown unknowns’ and also here accounts for them
  • There is 5/6 chance that we will make it through the next 100 years
    • But making the 1/6 smaller (to 1/6,1) may be very valuable and we’re not doing enough at this moment
  • The future potential of us humans is so vast (exploring the galaxy, making more art, discovering new things about nature, etc)
    • In the last chapter Toby Ord does a great job of making you want to see the bright future that we need to protect

Making Music

This is the essay for the third theme of my 2020 goals.

I’ve always appreciated good music and have a very diverse set of musical genres that I like to listen to. For some years I’ve played saxophone and someday (when not living in the city) I hope to resume doing that.

Next to playing the saxophone, I haven’t really made music myself. Because I enjoy electronic music (techno, house, etc), I plan on learning how to make some of that myself.

This reminds me of a time when I was about 14 years old. My brother and I got a dj-set on which you could mix music together. We used it for a while but sold it to a friend within a year or two. The friend eventually became quite a reasonable dj.

My two goals for this project are, 1) be able to create music myself, 2) by this process learn to enjoy/appreciate music even more (by knowing what goes on ‘behind the curtain’).

Plan of Attack

  1. Find a program to make it in (I now have FL Studio 20)
  2. Find tutorials on how to use the program
  3. Find samples/edit them and make my first song
  4. Make more songs with these ideas:
    1. Classical music and techno beats
    2. Melodic vocals and techno beats
    3. Movie/tv series quotes and techno beats
    4. A more funky ‘tropical house’ beat
    5. Synthesizer number
  5. Find a way to easily host them (e.g. on this site and/or soundcloud)
  6. Design a workflow/system that I can keep on making music after this initial project is done

What I’ve Learned

I’m subscribed to SkillShare (referral link) and there I’ve found over 10 courses for FL Studio 20. I’m going to start with ‘FL Studio 20 Beginners Course – Learn How to Make Beats in FL Studio’

First session: 1.5h

  • Select ASIO driver (f10, audio), you can change the version if one doesn’t work well
  • Increase buffer length (f10, then audio, buffer) if the pc can’t keep up. Smaller buffer length if pc can do it well
  • Resampling quality (can do lower quality whilst making it (f10, audio)), put at maximum when exporting song
  • Undo history at 100 (f10, general), knob tweaks also enabled (both were already at this setting)
  • Autosave frequently – because chance of crashing highest during playback (f10, file) and changed save folder to large drive (D)
  • Press f1 to go to help (webpage by FL Studio)
  • How does it work?
    • You create patterns, loops
    • You add these to the playlist, this creates the song
    • You choose when and where the patterns play (arrange them)
    • In the mixer you can adjust the loops (mastering, audio painting, transition, filters)
  • If you have your own sounds, you can drag them into the ‘browser’ (on the left), just drag the folder there
  • F2 – rename and colour a pattern (loop)
  • Ctrl + x (when selecting parts of your loop, you cut them)
  • F4 – new pattern
  • + / – go to next / previous pattern (1-9 ditto)
  • ! paste in snares etc (in your pattern – from other pattern)
  • play buttons – channel rack (is only pattern), playlist (is all)
  • ! Bar at top of pattern is (I think, looks different than tutorial) how much they ‘miss’ the perfect mark
  • Shift + ctrl + c = clone a pattern (or right click on the pattern name (in top bar)
  • If you have an instrument, right click on it to go to piano roll
  • Ctrl + click (slepen) is highlighting
  • Shift + click to duplicate that what you selected

Second session: 1h

  • Middle-mouse click on loop to rename (and colour – F2 when that is selected)
  • Knobs on left of loops are left-right (first knob), and volume (second knob)
    • Panning can also be done in in mixer
  • Highlight sounds (loops) by left/right-click, alt (arrow up/down), shift+click, clicking on them (so everything that makes sense)
    • If multiple selected, can do gradient
  • In the mixer (down), you can assign your sounds, shift+ctrl+l and start from your first/top sound (auto-fills the rest after that)
  • Alt+delete (is delete loop)
  • If you drop a sound, drop it at bottom or in between other sounds (otherwise it overwrites the other one)
  • In loop/channel-panel, the III (three bars) icon is where you can make the sounds/tunes more human (same as thing in piano roll (bottom)) – called the graph editor
  • In loop/channel-panel – you have a loop feature (somewhat confusing – looping stuff that isn’t as long as everything or something)
  • (that was step-sequencer, now playlist)
  • Ctrl+a, del = empty whole playlist
  • select patterns with number pad (1,2,3)
  • then plus (or minus) to go to next/previous pattern
  • hover over top bar (with numbers), ctrl+click-hold to select that part, ctrl+b to copy-past that part
  • magnet (also top bar), you can select beat/bar to change where the loops snap to (how fine-grained)
  • (working with audio clips), good, but for drums etc use fl studio things (not audio clips)
  • alt (and move a loop in playlist freely) instead of snapping to the ‘grids’
  • alt+shift (right side), you can cut a part (and then delete the part you don’t want with right mouse)
  • Shift+Q, quantise = snap to grid

Third session: 1.5h

(piano roll)

  • F7 to open, ENTER to make full screen
  • Quarter beat/half-step (in magnet) to show the right amount of zoom/snaps (shift to mini-adjust time, alt to mini-adjust volume)
  • Ctrl+q is making everything snap (quantize) to gridlines
  • (trying out some things in piano roll)
  • if ghost notes enabled, double-right-click on notes to go to the other (ghost) instrument
  • via edit, allow resizing from the left (seems reasonable)
  • control (bottom) can adjust volume and pan (alt and hover over note you want to edit)
  • Not too useful for piano/guitar, but can be cool for snare or other things you want to edit in volume/pitch

(how to use the mixer)

  • Route sound (loop) to mixer (d/q to play that sound and check if the volume etc is moving on the right mixer)
  • ctrl+shift = higlighting multiple mixers
  • dry signal, going to master directly, wet signal is one that is going via other mixer (e.g. the reverb)
  • “mixer takes beat (loops) to next level

Fourth session (75min):

(sounds)

  • Make folder where you save everything
  • Be organized
  • Buy/have some sounds, but don’t need too many
  • (downloaded and unzipped some drum kits)

Fifth session (45min):

(plugins, backups, snaps)

  • More technical discussion things

Good info for first song: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2AXzP3hs98g

Green Roof & Solar Panels

Why: Because our bedroom gets really hot in the summer. A green roof might help. Solar panels too, and of course will give us sustainable energy.

The questions I want answered:

How much does a green roof help with heat?

Not really clear from websites. But do all say that is has this effect and also keeps in the heat in the winter.

Best info here (Living Roofs). Heat under roof is not 32, but 17 C.

How much does a green roof costs? Could I get the neighbour(s) involved?

This website (GroenDak) looks best. Here is an instruction on how to put it on the roof yourself.

Costs are €41 per m2 (DIY)

Roof is m2 (or m2 if only our own part)

How much do solar panels cost? How does long does it to earn them back?

Based on zonnepanelen.net website calculator (which first gobbles up your email and then wants more).

3200 kWh per year energy based on 12 panels.

That is very good, our usage is 1700 kWh or lower.

Size of panel is 165- or 196x99cm (so about 2m2).

€60 euro per month savings/money earned (guesstimate).

Based on GroenDak website, costs are around €2500 for 8 panels.

Can I combine both?

Coolblue says no (for green roof and installing solar panels).

Is there a subsidie available?

This one for green roofs Rotterdam. (links to this page)

  • €15 per square meter
  • 8 weeks after improvement (or earlier)
  • minimal 20 m2 (roof is possibly a bit larger than that)

Dog Food

Max is currently eating Acana dog food. I wanted to know if it would be easier/cheaper to make it myself (and make it vegetarian). After researching that, I eventually found out that the best solution is to buy vegetarian dog food.

I first dismissed the latter because I thought that this would be much more expensive. Only at the end of my research, I found out that the vegetarian dog food was cheaper than the one I was buying until now.

Previously – Acana

80 euro per bag of 17kg

€4,71 per kg

€1,13 estimated costs per day

DIY

€2,10 estimated costs per day

Based on list of ingredients adapted from this blog.

The mix I made consisted of 23% protein.

The costs per 700kcal would be €1,82 (so per ‘normal’ meal, so not too expensive and quite healthy)

(for myself: file is saved under personal – archive)

New – V-Dog Flakes / Crunchy Nuggets

53,50 per bag of 15kg

€3,57 per kg

€0,86 estimated costs per day

note 1: calories per gram estimated to be the same

note 2: Flakes is cheaper, but is Crunchy Nuggets are ‘brokjes’ so the same as Max has now

When I run out of the current food, I will be switching Max over to this food.

Public Commitment 2020 – Update 1

This year my theme is Upgrade. The goal is to use the things I already know, and apply/improve/renew it to build more new things.

The two big things that have come out of the first quarter are the two essays:

I’m happy with how the blogs have turned out.

As feedback for myself, I would say that I was way more focused on the first blog (spending upwards of an hour per day on it, on many days). Whilst for the second blog I needed quite some time to get started. I think that if that happens again, I should use my bi-weekly reminder as a real decision point, to continue or switch topics.

In the coming quarter I will continue to work on new topics. The next one I plan to tackle is to make some music myself (on the laptop). After that I will see again.

Now onto the goals.

Goal 1: Write Nova (and possibly other short stories)

This is on hold until later this year. I will maybe write a short story as a one-day project this quarter.

Goal 2: Improve this website

I’m really happy with the changes I’ve made recently. The website now looks much better with some ‘cards’ that display where I’m at with certain topics and themes. Check out the homepage to see more.

Goal 3: Do something crazy for love

Not happened yet, but I did install Sims 4 and Lotte is really happy with that (and instantly addicted).

Goal 4: Write essays about 6 topics

Two down, 4 more to go. I can say that I like the essay form and it enables me to think longer about a problem and connect more things (and link back where necessary and reread some of my notes on that topic).

Goal 5: Start a new and successful venture

You can check out the progress/projects under this venture at Blossom Act.

I’m still really in a creator-mode (making sure everything works), but soon I will start going into promotion/connection mode (and of course these things overlap). I’ve made some good connections already and will try and actively engage even more the coming months.

Next to the things that are live now, I’ve also had even more ideas and over time I think I can really keep working on Blossom for 10 years or even a lifetime (70 years).

Alright, that is it for this update. Check back with you next time.

April 2020

No, You Didn’t Just Lose Half Of Your Retirement Savings

Source: Mr. Money Moustache |By: MMM

Over time, we can be optimistic. You won’t take out all your money now (don’t do it), so just wait it out and things will get better.

The next software revolution: programming biological cells | Sara-Jane Dunn

Source: Youtube / TED Talk | By: Sara-Jane Dunn

Pogramming cells will be the next computing language. This is a way in which we can tackle diseases, make living software, revolutionalize agriculture.

E.g. crops that have double yield, fend of pests themselves, etc. The same goes for immunity of humans.

Other than most code, it’s self organising (without a ‘brain’ – bottom-up).

Research into embryonic cells, make naive ones again from muscle/other cells.

Made a tool that looks at cells, what leads to what (A => B v C)

Then probed the cell, to learn what is best/fastest way to get the cell back to naive state.

Now working on getting ‘computational biology’ to be a field that has great impact (bridge between software and wetware).

Episode 991: Lives Vs. The Economy

This episode of planet money talks about how much we value a life. The number is $3.000.000 in the US. Because of political reasons there is no difference between saving a kid (with many years to live) or extending an older persons life with 1 year. The price is based on (amongst other things) how much extra we pay people with dangerous jobs (e.g. company pays people 3.000 more per year, and chance of dying on the job is 1/1000 = 3M).

This ties back into the coronavirus measures and how it’s very much worth it now to keep things closed. More discussion also on Sam Harris’ podcast with Paul Bloom.

We can, and should, put a value on life, but calculating it (and all the externalities) is very difficult. And, of course, very unfair. Since we can still save so many lives from neglected tropical diseases (malaria, worms, vitamin c deficiency, diarrhea) for pennies on the dollar.

How Tech Can Build

Source: Stratechery / Ben Thompson

Great review and original opinion by Ben Thompson on how we should be building things again. About taking risk. About not being complacent. His three parting pieces of advice are:

  1. Tech should embrace and accelerate distributed work
  2. Invest in real-world companies that differentiate investment in hardware with software
  3. Find an investment model that works (less upside, but also less risk)

The Copenhagen Interpretation of Ethics

Source: Jaibot (Jia), fellow EA

“… it’s okay to notice a problem and only make it a little bit better. If everyone did that, the world would be a vastly better place. If everyone “exploited” opportunities where they could benefit and alleviate people’s suffering at the same time, we’d all be better off.

Nutrition, Programming Burpees, Supplements and Form, Let’s talk about it

Source: Iron Wolf

Discovered this YouTube channel. Awesome burpee content, and this one specifically about food, supplements, etc.

Newtonian Ethics

Source: Slate Star Codex

“We can confirm this to the case by investigating inverse square laws. If morality is indeed an unusual form of gravitation, it will vary with the square of the distance between two objects.”

Interesting take on ethics and something that EA tries to combat (make us not consider the distance). Could be used as a talking point when introducing people to EA (effective altruism).

The Anti-Amazon Alliance

Source: Stratechery

Good article about how to find customers and how different platforms (Amazon, Shopify, Google) are working on that and what is important there. Relevant as Google Shopping will become free to use in the future (EU).

TIHKAL

Originally published on Blossom Analysis

TIHKAL by Alexander & Ann Shulgin is another (after PIHKAL) great biography and chemistry exploration by this amazing couple. You’re taken across the world, from small French villages to Brazilian villas. It’s humorous, opinionated, open-hearted, and overall a great read.

Quick Take

A book like TIHKAL is hard to capture in a summary. First, it doesn’t really explain much in the biography-side of the book. Second, the chemistry and subsequent description are great, but also something that is less well captured. Below is, therefore, more a summary of my interpretation of the themes that the book conveys.

Information Wants to be Free

Alexander (Sascha) is called in as an expert in various scenarios. One time he travels to Spain to help a defendant, another time he is called to Australia to testify as an expert, and one fun story recalls their time in Brazil teaching others how to make MDMA. In each case, he (or they) are there to provide information, to let people know the chemistry and help them make better decisions.

Yet at many moments, starting in the first chapter, they are confronted with a more and more restrictive law. One in which experimentation as a chemist is not possible. One in which drug development is hampered because you can’t make an ‘analog’ (defined so vaguely as to almost encompass any molecule).

Their previous book, PIHKAL, also tries to make information available, and that is probably what got their house raided.

Yet through all of this, I think someone can be hopeful. In some ways, information flows quite freely (e.g. I got this book, can write about it, you can read it). And some countries are wising up to the ‘war on drugs’. Heck, even America has legalized cannabis/weed at the state level.

Research into psychedelics is in full swing and for-profit companies (and probably some universities) are experimenting again with making analogs that might work better or in a different way than the chemicals already known. Who knows, many of the people involved here could have a copy of both books on their shelves. Let’s hope future legislators do.

Psychedelics Work, but How?

Ann (Alice) describes her use of psychedelics as a therapist (one with experience, not with any formal training). She enlightens the reader on how there is an underground layer (can I say cabal) of therapists who have developed therapy sessions around MDMA, MDA, 2CB, and even LSD. She talks about various sessions where the participant/patient takes MDMA and what some criteria are for when they use it (i.e. a long-standing working relationship).

What I didn’t read, and what Ann didn’t suggest, is that we know why they work. Scientists are hard at work trying to figure this out and at this moment (2020) we’re starting to get the first clues (e.g. increased neuroplasticity), but what we do know is that they work.

For whom is it most effective? When should we do it? For who shouldn’t we do it? What is a reasonable dose? And should we give it every week for 6 weeks (similar to what Ann did) or would one time be enough? With guidance, and if yes, how much?

These are all questions that we have at this moment. We might venture to guess at some answers. But what I read between the lines is that we need experience to learn. Experience that we can share (coming back to the information that wants to be free/spread). Experience to which we can apply reason, the scientific method, and a whole bunch of gut feelings.

Remote

Remote by Jason Fried & David Heinemeier Hansson makes the case for working remotely. They do it successfully with their own company (Basecamp) and encourage others to do it too.

At first pass, I found the book not to apply to my own situation, but I might reread it as the current situation makes it more present than before.

Antifragile

Antifragile by Nassim Taleb is quite an interesting book. Read a long time ago, summary to be made (will probably read again now in May 2020)

Antifragile – systems that increase in capability to thrive as a result of stressors, shocks, volatility, noise, mistakes, faults, attacks, or failure

The main idea of the book is presented above. Some other concepts I’ve put in Obsidian (Zettelkasten) so I can find them connected to other things.

Here is a more generic summary:

  • Lindy effect: things (non-alive) that have survived to this day, will survive longer than a thing that is younger (e.g. a book that is in print for long, will probably outlive a newer book)
  • Barbell strategy: strategy that focusses on two extremes, from finance, can also be applied to personal goals or work goals (very high and very low risk)
  • Via negativa: what to avoid/not do (e.g. see a doctor for small ails)
  • Skin in the game: need to take a risk (personally) to do something (Taleb argues that otherwise you won’t have the right incentive)
  • Green Lumber Fallacy: understanding the wrong thing, or not understanding/knowing about the underlying/practical considerations
  • Also lots of talk about concave and convex relationships versus them being linear. This could also explain second order effects as sometimes only one more thing needs to happen before the graph shoots up versus trickles up

More reviews

  • Astral Codex Ten
    • positive but notes that it’s much crammed into one concept
    • “… getting your predictions right was less important than calculating payoffs right. For example, if some very smart scientists tell you that there’s an 80% chance the coronavirus won’t be a big deal, you thank them for their contribution and then prepare for the coronavirus anyway. In the world where they were right, you’ve lost some small amount of preparation money; in the world where they were wrong, you’ve saved hundreds of thousands of lives.

Neo.Life

Neo.Life by Jane Metcalfe & Brian Bergstein (and the contributing authors) presents 25 visions for the future of the human species. They vary from research reports grounded in today, to speculative stories about how our world will look in 50 years.

The book is divided into three parts, the first consists of road maps and is the most grounded in today. The second is creative briefs and those look at what could be possible (say in 5-50 years). The last imagines a brave new world in which the human species is quite different from today.

Below are some of the things I found most interesting:

Jan Metcalfe (the author/compiler) wrote down the principles that the group proposes for the development of our species:

  • Technology should be used to increase biological diversity, both in humans and other species.
    • To future proof the species and I think also as a counterpoint to the monoculture that we sometimes strive for (e.g. optimize for intelligence over art)
  • In general, people should be free to determine their own use of genetic modification, based on well-informed choices
    • Of course it’s difficult to say who is well-informed
    • But they do note that it should give more freedom to someone experimenting on themselves versus editing an embryo
    • And makes us think about what we edit that is only for you, or something that you pass along through the gene line
  • Humility and caution will lower the risk of unintended consequences that would undermine biotechnologies and thus reduce human possibility in the long run.
    • This seems a bit too vague
    • The explanation does mention more mute switches in genes and testing in somatic cells
  • Governance of biotechnologies should exhibit traits of the underlying system.
    • This argues that the regulations should be aware of the biological features (feedback loops, adaptations)

Genetic sequencing of everyone should help us eliminate single-gene diseases and make carriers more aware of them.

  • One example used was to have this added to dating, so at a second date you could bring it up and prevent heartbreak
  • That part didn’t sound to convincing, but the part about saving a million lives did

We humans are not diverse (only 0.1% of genome is different)

  • What would happen if this changes and we would have different types of humans?
  • Some adapted to living in space (against radiation) or other circumstances

One author (David Eagleman) philosophizes about us being able to choose kids and by having more choices, regret the alternative histories (the choice we didn’t make/pick).

  • I don’t think that applies perfectly, but I do get the point that if we know what kid we choose from 8 (or 100) options of which we knew some characteristics, we might regret it later on

Two stories revolve around the democratization/stuff becoming cheaper, of biotechnology. One should only think about a more efficient SARS-CoV-2 and we would all be toast. So ethics and detection should be paramount.

Zoe Cormier imagines the perfect drug. This reflects (one of the) last chapter(s) in Drugs: Without the Hot Air by David Nutt. It would be great if we could invent something that was better than was out there today (alcohol, tobacco – and others).